What minimum win rate do you need to be profitable with your R:R? Discover if your strategy has a mathematical edge.
For a R:R of 1:2, break-even is at 33.3%
| R:R | Minimum Win Rate | Losses Tolerated / 100 | Difficulty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1:0.5 | 66.7% | 33 | Difficult |
| 1:1 | 50.0% | 50 | Moderate |
| 1:1.5 | 40.0% | 60 | Moderate |
| 1:2 | 33.3% | 66 | Moderate |
| 1:2.5 | 28.6% | 71 | Achievable |
| 1:3 | 25.0% | 75 | Achievable |
| 1:4 | 20.0% | 80 | Achievable |
| 1:5 | 16.7% | 83 | Achievable |
| 1:7 | 12.5% | 87 | Easy |
| 1:10 | 9.1% | 90 | Easy |
| 1:15 | 6.3% | 93 | Easy |
| 1:20 | 4.8% | 95 | Easy |
Many beginner traders think a high win rate = success. Wrong.A trader with 30% win rate can be far more profitable than a trader at 70% win rate. It all depends on the Risk:Reward ratio.
The mathematical truth is simple: what matters is not how often you win, it's how much you win when you win vs how much you lose when you lose. This is the fundamental equation of trading profitability.
This calculator gives you the exact break-even point: the minimum win rate you need to not lose money, given your R:R. Everything above = profit. Everything below = guaranteed losses in the long run.
This formula comes from simple logic: in the long run, to break even, your total gains must equal your total losses.
Trader B earns 8x more than Trader A despite a 2x lower win rate. The lesson: don't try to be right often, try to be right big. Let your winners run, cut your losses short.
Requires very high accuracy. Commission fees have a strong impact.
Balance between frequency and quality. The most popular style.
Less stress, bigger moves. Patience required.
Expectancy tells you how much you earn on average per unit of risk. It is THE metric that summarizes your edge.
Example: With 40% win rate and a 1:2 R:R, your expectancy = (0.40 × 2) - (0.60 × 1) = 0.80 - 0.60 = +0.20R. You earn on average 0.20 times your risk per trade.
You see the price approaching your TP and you move it further "to win more". Result: the price reverses and you take nothing. Your actual R:R drops.
The fear of seeing profit disappear makes you exit before TP. Your win rate increases but your R:R collapses. You lose your edge.
The price goes against you and you move your SL "to give it room". You turn a 1R loss into a 2-3R loss. Catastrophic.
Spreads and commissions reduce your effective R:R. A 1:2 R:R with 5 pips of spread on a 20-pip trade becomes a 1:1.5 R:R in reality.
Your backtest shows 45% win rate but live you are at 35% due to slippage, emotions, and imperfect executions. Be conservative.
A trader who knows their break-even, expectancy, and R:R has a massive advantage over one who trades blindly. The math doesn't lie.